Another day, another poll

While the eurozone crisis rumbles on, the mis-match between what the eurozone needs to survive (probably a full-blown fiscal union) and what citizens accept, is growing ever more conspicuous.



Therefore, we were a bit surprised when the we read the following headline in Friday's Die Welt: "Die Deutschen wollen mehr Europa" (Germans want more Europe). This was apparently the most eye-catching finding in a new opinion poll carried out by DeutschlandTREND for German TV station ARD. Some in the twittospehere and elsewhere interpreted this as endorsement by German citizens for more powers being transferred to the EU institutions.



Really?



As it turns out, the question didn't even mention the EU. Instead, respondents were asked whether they supported “more common policy making in Europe over the next few years” ("mehr gemeinsame Politik in Europa"), which can mean a whole range of things, including more inter-governmental cooperation for example. On this question , 64% answered "yes". It's still an interesting finding, but clearly not one that can be taken as a strong indicator of German public support for the transferral of more power to EU's institutions.



(We're not suggesting that there's anything sinister about the Die Welt's write-up of the poll - just a normal case of seeking to spice up a headline. Not like when the European Commission tried to have us believe that just because a majority of respondents to a Eurobarometer poll said that "stronger coordination of economic and financial policies among all EU member states" would be effective or fairly effective to combat the ongoing crisis, that therefore meant that a majority of EU citizens favoured "stronger European economic governance").



However, the DeutschlandTREND poll provides a number of other very interesting findings, which which seem to suggest that, if the eurozone moves towards fiscal union, it will probably do so with German citizens kicking and screaming. According to the poll, only 35% of Germans would accept even “limited” versions of Eurobonds, while 55% oppose them.





As in previous polls, the bailouts aren't popular either: 66% of Germans are opposed to the Bundestag approving an extended bailout fund:





At the same time, 53% of respondents say they oppose a “United States of Europe”, with only 42% in favour, which clearly qualifies the conclusion that Germans are in favour of "more Europe".



However, the most conspicuous expression of changing public sentiments over recent weeks comes from Finland. A poll out last week shows that 47% of Finns think the euro has done more good than harm. When that same question was asked in a Eurobarometer poll only one year ago, 71% said the euro had done more good than harm. Meanwhile, 49% of Finns are opposed to the Greek bailout, with 34% supporting it. It's hard to find a clearer illustration of the political cost of the bailouts and the eurozone crisis.



If it wasn't for that annoying thing called democracy...

Economic governance: a tale of two polls

A new poll published yesterday by the German Marshall Fund of the United States makes for interesting reading.

With a few exceptions, majorities in the eurozone countries said the euro has been a bad thing for their economy, including France (60%) and Germany (53%), but also Spain (53%) and Portugal (52%). Italians were divided on the benefits of the euro with 47% saying the euro has been good and 48% saying it has been bad for their economy. Only the Dutch (52%) and Slovaks (64%) had majorities saying the euro has been a good thing.

Unsurprisingly, a full 83% in the UK thought that using the euro would be a bad thing for the economy.

But perhaps just as interestingly, the poll found that a plurality of EU respondents (46%) believe that in dealing with the current economic crisis, each country’s national government should have primary responsibility. Roughly two-in-five EU respondents (39%) said that the EU should have primary responsibility for handling the current economic crisis.

Only in Germany did the majority (54%) agree that the EU should have the leading role in economic decision-making. The French were divided on the issue, with 47% saying the national government and 43% saying the EU should have the primary responsibility.

This certainly makes an interesting comparison with the Commission's recent claims that "75% of EU citizens want more European economic governance", based on a rather creative interpretation of its Eurobarometer survey, which we have debunked before. EUobserver notes that the results "sharply contradict" the European Commission's interpretation.

Respondents were only asked whether or not “a stronger coordination of economic and financial policies among all EU member states” would be effective to combat the ongoing crisis (see p. 38 here). The question didn’t even mention the role of the EU or the term “European economic governance”. The Commission got its 75 percent figure by adding up the respondents who thought that stronger coordination would be “very effective” (26 percent) and those who only thought it would be “fairly effective” (49 percent).

Herman Van Rompuy's taskforce clearly has a very difficult job on its hands if it's to convince people on the need for greater economic governance.

A classic example of EU spin

Here's an example of some good old EU spin for you:

The European Commission today announced the results from the latest Eurobarometer poll - carried out in May during the height of the crisis - with a press release carrying the headline,"EU citizens favour stronger European economic governance". 75 percent of Europeans, we are told by the press release, are in favour of giving the EU a stronger role in the coordination of member states' economic and budgetary policies.

EU Justice Commissioner Viviane Reding - who also is in charge of Communication - comments:

"The clear majority for enhanced European economic governance shows that people see the EU as a decisive part of the solution to the crisis".

Clearly, something fishy is going in here, not least since only 26 percent of people then go on to say that they consider the EU best placed to deal with the financial and economic crisis.

And sure enough, the Commission is trying to take us for a ride. Respondents to the Eurobarometer survey were only asked whether or not "a stronger coordination of economic and financial policies among all EU member states" would be effective to combat the ongoing crisis (see p. 38 here). The question doesn't even mention the role of the EU or the term "European economic governance". Creatively, the Commission then adds up the respondents who think that stronger coordination would be "very effective" (26 percent) and those who only find it "fairly effective" (49 percent) to reach the 75 percent figure.

Seriously, how stupid do they think we are? By no stretch of the imagination is this the same as 75 percent of Europeans being in favour of giving the EU more powers to monitor national economies, which the Commission is trying to make us believe in its press release.

The Eurobarometer could have asked this question instead: “Do you think that the EU should be given more powers to monitor your country’s economy, including decisions on public spending and taxation?” We suspect the result would have been completely different.

What the Commission really should be focussing on is the troubling fact that only 49 percent of respondents think that EU membership is "a good thing" down from 53 percent last year. Or that the percentage of people who think that EU membership is "a bad thing" has reached its highest level in a decade - now at 18 percent (see p. 12).

What's more, the percentage of people who think that EU membership is a good thing has decreased by 5 percent in France and the Netherlands, for example, and by a striking 10 percent in Germany (down to 50 percent) in only one year. Incidentally, these countries are all net contributors to the EU budget.

Is the Commission getting the hints? We hope so, but somehow doubt it.

Ps. If we were to use the same method as the Commission to support our claims, we could add up respondents who said that EU membership is "a bad thing" with those who said it is "neither good nor bad" (29 percent) to obtain a remarkable 47 percent of "EU non-enthusiasts".