Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Rebels in need of a cause?

As you are undoubtedly aware by now, last night 79 Conservative MPs defied a three line whip to vote for a referendum on the EU. There have been Tory euro rebellions before, and no doubt there will be again – but this one was different. Not only did it take in nearly half of all Tory backbenchers, but it also included many of the 2010 intake untainted by the Tory euro wars of old. This new group are not against the EU in its entirety but wish to see some form of EU reform where powers are returned to the member states. Much can be said about yesterday's vote - and we'll return to this issue when the dust has settled and tempers have cooled down.

Leaving aside the issues of Cameron's party management skills, backbench powers and residual discontent over the Coalition (pretty big issues in domestic politics for sure), yesterday's debate, whilst good in part, did suffer from a certain lack of clarity and definition.

We know that many MPs are unhappy about the status quo in Europe - that was clear from the interventions. But moving beyond discontent, what sort of Europe are MPs/should MPs be arguing for? David Cameron said that he agreed with the rebels as to their ends but not their means – yet scratch the surface and there are a variety of opinions, some informed, and some less so. Some MPs talk of repatriating powers, others of a free trade agreement, and some of a Norway-style arrangement as if these were mutually interchangeable. In fairness Tory MP Nadim Zahawi made exactly the same point during his speech yesterday. There is also disagreement as to what the UK's negotiating position ought to be; some believe the eurozone crisis has given the UK a golden opportunity to demand reform, while others take a more cautious line.

But - and this is where the debate is likely to head next - there's growing agreement across the political spectrum that the move toward eurozone fiscal union creates a new situation for the UK and one the UK needs to respond to in a strategic manner. It is unclear when or if there will be a new treaty, but when the time comes the UK will need to know what to ask for. In other words, we need to calmly and rationally weigh up the UK’s membership of the EU and decide what our priorities should be.

Strategies should include:

What does the UK need to safeguard from an unsympathetic eurozone voting caucus? What should be decided at the national level only? How can safeguards and carve-outs be made watertight and legally binding, given the EU's history of circumventing such measures (think Charter of Fundamental Rights)? What does the UK do if there's a new eurozone-only Treaty, stripping the UK of its veto over the next step of European integration, but leaving it exposed to the secondary effects?

These questions need answering, and the government needs to draw up a plan to make sure the UK's priorities get pushed through. It is important that the UK ascertains who its potential allies are, what its negotiating levers are, and when to use these to maximum effect. Encouragingly, it looks like this process might already be under way, as the government announced this afternoon that a review of which powers could be returned from Brussels to Westminster is in its early stages, with Europe Minister David Lidington saying that he “would welcome constructive suggestions from the Opposition as well as any part of this House as that work is carried forward."

If last night’s vote increases the sense of urgency in the need to come up with such a properly thought-out strategic plan then it will have served some good.

If not then it will be just another chapter in Conservative Party’s internal politics.

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