The Greek Crisis: What next?

With the Greek and eurozone debt crisis showing no sign of easing, let's try to assess the state of affairs - and what could happen over the next few weeks:

• Last Friday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear in a joint press conference that they were both calling for a "voluntary" participation of private investors in a second Greek bail-out, removing a stumbling block to an EU agreement on a second Greek bail-out (Germany had indicated that it wanted some sort of mandatory involvement from creditors);

• Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou confirmed over the weekend that a new loan "roughly equal" to the €110bn one agreed last year was being discussed;

• However, after an emergency meeting and hours of endless discussions, eurozone finance ministers have agreed to delay any decision on Greece until next month. In other words, Greece will get a new rescue package and the next instalment of its first bail-out only if the Greek Parliament adopts the new austerity package, worth €28bn.

So what next for Greece? Here are a couple of key dates you should really write down in your calendar if you want to stay on top of the Greek crisis:

• Tomorrow, the Greek Parliament will vote on the new cabinet. It's a vote of confidence, and if Papandreou and his ministers don't win it, early elections may be called. This would delay the approval of the new austerity package;
  

• On 23-24 June, EU leaders will meet in Brussels. They are expected to confirm that Greece must commit to a new round of austerity measures if it wants to receive fresh aid. More details of the second Greek bail-out will be decided, particularly in regards to the way in which private creditors will contribute to a second bail-out;

• On 28 June, another key vote will take place in the Greek Parliament. This time, Greek MPs will vote on the €28bn austerity package which will allow Greece to get fresh money from the EU/IMF and avoid a default. The outcome of the vote is far from certain, as Papandreou's government currently holds a tiny 5-seat majority in Parliament;
  

• On 3 July, eurozone finance ministers will hold another emergency meeting to take stock of the situation in Greece. By then, they hope that the Greek Parliament will have given the go-ahead to the new austerity package. If this is the case, they may decide to unblock their share of the payment of the next instalment of the first Greek bail-out loan, which together with the IMF's share is worth €12bn;
  

• On 11 July, eurozone finance ministers are expected to make their final decision on the second Greek bail-out.
  

So expect EU leaders and markets to remain on the edge of their seats over the next few weeks. As ever, it's a race against time. Greece has some debt repayments to make by mid-July and will be forced into bankruptcy if it fails to secure further EU/IMF financing.

Tomorrow, we will publish a new briefing on the implications of a second Greek bail-out and a likely default. Stay tuned.